The eternal debate in the world of mining: the proud lone wolf against the pack. Is it worth joining a pool and sharing the reward, or is it better to claim the entire “jackpot” for yourself? For a newcomer, the temptation of solo mining is great – after all, 100% of the block reward sounds much more appealing than 0.001%.
Let’s be honest: for 99.9% of ASIC owners, this choice is an illusion. In this article, we will clearly demonstrate, with simple mathematics, why solo mining is not a profit strategy, but a ticket to a very expensive and long lottery. If you don’t fully understand the key difference yet, start with our main guide on what a mining pool is.
Raw Mathematics: Your Chance of Finding a Block Alone
Words convince, but numbers prove. Let’s calculate the chances of success for one standard ASIC.
Initial data (at the time of writing, always check current data):
- Your ASIC: Popular Antminer S19 Pro with a hashrate of 110 TH/s.
- Total Bitcoin network hashrate: ~600 EH/s. Let’s convert everything to terahashes for convenience. 1 EH/s = 1,000,000 TH/s. So, the total hashrate = 600,000,000 TH/s.
- Average block finding time in the network: 10 minutes.
Calculating your chance:
Your share of the total network power: 110 / 600,000,000 = 0.000000183%. This is your probability of finding the next block.
Now for the most interesting part: how long to wait?
Formula for calculating the average time for you to find a block: (Total network hashrate / Your hashrate) * 10 minutes.
(600,000,000 TH/s / 110 TH/s) * 10 minutes = 5,454,545 * 10 minutes = 54,545,450 minutes
Let’s convert this into more understandable units:
- In hours: ~909,090 hours
- In days: ~37,878 days
- In years: ~103 years
Conclusion: On average, with one Antminer S19 Pro, you will find one block every 103 years. All this time, your ASIC will consume electricity, and you will not receive a single penny. This is the answer to the question of why solo mining doesn’t work.
Solo vs. Pool: A Comparative Table
| Parameter | Solo Mining | Pool Mining |
|---|---|---|
| Income | All or nothing. A huge jackpot once every few decades, or zero. | ✅ Small, but stable and predictable daily payouts. |
| Probability of success | ❌ Practically zero for a private miner. | ✅ 100%. The pool finds blocks constantly; you are guaranteed to receive your share. |
| Technical complexity | High. Requires setting up and maintaining your own full Bitcoin node (hundreds of gigabytes). | Low. You just need to enter the pool address into the ASIC’s web interface. |
| Risks | The main risk is receiving absolutely nothing, having spent thousands of dollars on electricity. | Minimal: temporary pool unavailability, commission fees. |
For Whom Does Solo Mining Still Make Sense?
Despite all of the above, solo mining is not dead. It has simply become a niche activity for three categories of participants:
- Crypto Giants. Companies with huge data centers whose hashrate is measured in exahashes (EH/s). When you have 1-2% of the entire network’s power, the law of large numbers starts working for you, and you find blocks regularly even in solo mode.
- New Altcoin Miners. When a new cryptocurrency is launched, its difficulty is very low. In the first days or weeks, even one powerful ASIC can have a significant share in the network, making solo mining temporarily profitable.
- Ideological Purists. People who mine not for profit, but to support maximum network decentralization. For them, running their own node and solo mining is a philosophical choice.
Verdict: Don’t Play the Lottery, Build a Business
For 99.9% of miners, from the owner of a single ASIC to the owner of a small farm, the choice is obvious. Pool mining is the only working business model that turns your equipment into an asset generating stable income.
Solo mining is a gamble with slim chances of winning. Don’t waste your time and money on it. Now that you are convinced of the right choice, make sure you choose the right pool. Our guide to choosing a pool will help you with this.
